Paradigm shifts: The 176th meeting of the NY State Agricultural Society provided an excellent look at paradigm shifts coming in agriculture. So, what’s a paradigm shift and who cares?
Here is an example. It was 1954 when the number of tractors in agriculture first exceeded the number of horses being used for power. The number of horses declined rapidly after that time. Horse power came from feed raised mostly on the farm where it was used. Tractors require hydrocarbon based liquid fuels. Those come from crude oil extracted from the earth.
Changing to tractor power freed up land that had been used to grow horse feed. We will never go back to horse power. That was a paradigm shift. But, we may go back to growing fuel on the land!
Liquid fuels for agriculture: At this time, the only alternative source of liquid fuels for agriculture (or transportation) is biomass. The fuel that is now displacing oil is ethanol. The easiest biomass to convert to ethanol is corn. People have been making corn alcohol (liquor) for a long time! Scientific research has shown us how to make ethanol from cellulosic biomass, but not at a competitive price in today’s economy.
So, whether it is corn or biomass, we are back to producing power for agriculture using farmland instead of extracting it from deep below the surface of the earth. We are growing fuel for power like we did in the days of horse supplied power.
Tractors and self propelled farm equipment revolutionized agriculture. They put us into a world wide market for commodities used for food and feed. That market changed in the 1970s and farmers responded accordingly. That was a paradigm shift.
The next paradigm shift: New forces are creating a paradigm shift in crop production and cultural practices. Energy markets are now influencing the price of commodities. Corn, which is primarily used for animal feed, is now being priced by demand for corn to be the raw product for energy production. By-product distiller’s feeds are causing a major shift in livestock feeding. This trend will continue until cellulosic biomass conversion becomes a practical process. The by-product corn oil is becoming one of the raw products for bio-based diesel fuel.
Oilseed crops such as canola, soybean and sunflower are now being priced not only for oil food value, but also for their value in bio-based diesel production. So far, the price of cooking oils exceeds the price for diesel production. In the longer term situation, more oil can be produced per acre by algae growing in an aquatic environment. Again, the practicality has yet to be perfected. Watch out when it is perfected.
The other factor creating a major paradigm shift is carbon sequestration. It will take several generations before we know for sure if mankind is creating global warming or if it is all part of a great geological cycle.
In geologic terms, we have had times of cooling with resulting glaciation that covered all of NY. That ended as recently as 10 to 12,000 years ago. Before that, there were times of heat and drying when the Great Lakes Basin was a North American desert and the water levels were hundreds of feet lower than they are today.
Carbon sequestration setting the agenda: Currently, political decisions are dominated by the theory that mankind is creating global warming. We therefore need to sequester carbon to keep it from becoming part of the atmosphere (Green House Gases or GHG) and contributing to global warming. Forget that it is essential to photosynthesis in green plants, trees and algae.
Change: In large and small ways, these cultural pressures (and economic incentives) are making major changes in agriculture. One way or another, incentives are available to reduce tillage, capture methane from manure, plant cover crops, trees or pasture, incorporate all manure, cut down on use of oil based fuels and many more.
Take advantage of the shifts and markets for as long as they are available. Then be prepared for more shifts by the time the next generation of young farmers takes over. The future will bring change at a faster rate than the past! Makes me wish I was young again and could be part of the next paradigm shift. Be ready.
Return to AgFocus Page